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Within the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.