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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.