Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
